ORLANDO, Fla. (FNN) — A decade ago, Central Florida’s growing Puerto Rican population was widely viewed as a political force poised to reshape Florida politics for generations.

Today, that momentum faces growing uncertainty.

As congressional redistricting redraws political boundaries, voter turnout fluctuates, and internal political divisions deepen, Puerto Rican political representation in Central Florida is confronting one of its most significant challenges in modern Florida history.

At the center of the debate is Darren Soto, Florida’s first Puerto Rican member of Congress, who now faces a dramatically reshaped congressional district that political analysts say could strongly favor Republicans in 2026.

The battle over Soto’s political future has become symbolic of a larger question unfolding across Orange and Osceola counties: Can Puerto Rican political influence maintain its footing in a rapidly changing Central Florida electorate?

A Community That Once Redefined Florida Politics

Puerto Rican migration to Central Florida accelerated in the early 2000s and surged further following the economic downturn in Puerto Rico and the devastation caused by Hurricane Maria in 2017.

The migration transformed communities throughout Orlando, Kissimmee and surrounding areas, creating one of the largest Puerto Rican populations in the continental United States.

The political impact soon followed.

Puerto Rican candidates increasingly won elections at both the state and federal levels, creating what many viewed as a rising pipeline of Hispanic leadership in Florida.

That rise included the elections of leaders such as:

• Darren Soto (D) — U.S. Congressman; former State Senator (2012) and State Representative (2007)
• Victor Torres (D) — former State Senator (2016) and State Representative (2012)
• Susan Plasencia (R) — State Representative (2022)
• Johanna López (D) — State Representative (2022) and former Orange County School Board member
• Daisy Morales (D) — former State Representative (2020) and former Supervisor of Orange County Soil & Water Conservation District
• René Plasencia (R) — former State Representative (2014)
• Amy Mercado (D) — former State Representative (2016)
• John Cortes (D) — former State Representative (2014)
• Bob Cortes (R) — former State Representative (20140
• Ricardo Rangel (D) — former State Representative 2012
• John Quiñones (R) — former State Representative (2002) and former Osceola County Commissioner
• Anthony Suarez (D) — former State Representative (1999)

Puerto Rican representation reached a high point during the mid-2010s.

In 2016, six Puerto Rican elected officials simultaneously held seats in Congress or the Florida Legislature, including Soto, Torres, Bob Cortes, John Cortes, Amy Mercado and Rene Plasencia.

Political strategists at the time predicted that Puerto Rican voters could eventually help Democrats establish long-term dominance in Florida.

That projection, however, has not materialized.

Redistricting Changed the Political Landscape

The congressional map approved by Ron DeSantis and the Republican-controlled Legislature significantly altered Central Florida’s political boundaries following the 2020 Census.

The changes reshaped Soto’s congressional district by expanding it eastward and incorporating more conservative coastal and suburban voters.

Under the revised district:

• The Hispanic voting-age population declined substantially.
• Puerto Rican voter concentration dropped sharply.
• White voters became the district’s largest demographic group.
• Republican performance improved across multiple precincts added to the district.

Political analysts say the new map transformed what had been a Democratic-leaning Hispanic-majority district into a far more competitive seat.

The map also intensified concerns among civil rights advocates and Puerto Rican community leaders who argue the changes diluted Hispanic voting power.

Several legal challenges were filed against the congressional maps, though Florida courts have thus far allowed the districts to remain in place.

Election Results Raise Concerns

Recent election outcomes have further fueled debate over the future of Puerto Rican political representation.

In Senate District 25, Puerto Rican leadership ended after term limits forced the departure of Victor Torres.

His wife, Carmen Torres, sought to retain the seat in 2024 with support from Democratic leaders and Puerto Rican political organizations. She ultimately lost to a White candidate.

In House Districts 35, 44 and 47 — districts with large Hispanic populations — White candidates also prevailed.

Meanwhile, former State Rep. Daisy Morales lost reelection after facing opposition supported by portions of the Democratic establishment.

Some Puerto Rican community leaders argue the outcomes reveal a growing disconnect between the region’s Hispanic population growth and its elected leadership.

Others point to changing coalition politics in Central Florida, where Venezuelan, Colombian, Brazilian and non-Hispanic voters increasingly shape election outcomes alongside Puerto Rican voters.

Internal Political Divisions Complicate the Picture

Political observers also note that internal divisions within Democratic and Puerto Rican political circles have contributed to leadership turnover.

Several recent races featured:

• Competing endorsements among Puerto Rican leaders.
• Financial support directed toward non-Puerto Rican candidates.
• Divisions between progressive and establishment Democratic factions.
• Low turnout in local and legislative elections.

The victories of candidates such as Rita Harris demonstrated how coalition-building among African American, White progressive and non-Puerto Rican Hispanic voters could overcome traditional Puerto Rican political bases.

Voter Turnout Remains a Major Challenge

Despite population growth, Puerto Rican voter turnout has remained inconsistent in nonpresidential elections.

Political strategists say turnout gaps continue to weaken electoral influence, particularly in:

• Midterm elections.
• Local legislative races.
• Municipal and county contests.

Lower participation rates among younger voters and newly relocated residents have also limited the community’s ability to fully translate population growth into political power.

Republicans, meanwhile, have made gains among Hispanic voters across Florida, particularly among working-class and socially conservative voters concerned about inflation, public safety and economic issues.

Soto Still Maintains Key Advantages

Despite the challenges, Darren Soto enters the next election cycle with several advantages.

Soto remains one of the most recognizable political figures in Central Florida and has built strong relationships throughout Osceola and Orange counties during his years in public office.

Supporters credit Soto with helping secure federal investments involving:

• Transportation infrastructure.
• SunRail expansion efforts.
• Airport development.
• Economic development initiatives.
• Hurricane recovery assistance for Puerto Rican families relocating to Florida.

Democrats also believe backlash against aggressive redistricting and growing concerns over immigration enforcement policies could energize Hispanic voter turnout.

Still, many political analysts acknowledge that the new district lines significantly complicate Soto’s path to reelection.

What Happens if Soto Loses?

If Soto is defeated, Florida could temporarily lose Puerto Rican representation in Congress entirely.

For many community leaders, the symbolic impact would be significant.

Puerto Rican advocates argue that representation matters not only legislatively, but culturally and politically, particularly for communities that spent decades building political infrastructure in Central Florida.

The concern extends beyond a single election cycle.

Currently, Johanna López and Susan Plasencia remain among the few Puerto Rican voices serving in the Florida House.

López has announced she will not seek reelection and instead is running for Orange County commissioner. She endorsed Samuel Vilchez Santiago, a Venezuelan American candidate, to succeed her.

If elected, Santiago would further reflect the political evolution of Central Florida’s Hispanic electorate, where multiple Latino communities increasingly share political influence once largely associated with Puerto Rican voters.

A Defining Election Cycle Ahead

As Central Florida continues to diversify politically and demographically, the 2026 election cycle is expected to test whether Puerto Rican political influence can regroup under new district boundaries and changing coalition dynamics.

For Soto and many longtime Puerto Rican leaders, the coming election may determine whether the political movement that transformed Central Florida over the last two decades can maintain its influence — or whether a new political era is already emerging.