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A swing state no more? GOP confidence grows in Florida

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THE VILLAGES, Fla. (AP) — Democrats are increasingly concerned that Florida, once the nation’s premier swing state, may slip away this fall and beyond as emboldened Republicans capitalize on divisive cultural issues and population shifts in crucial contests for governor and the U.S. Senate.

The anxiety was apparent last week during a golf cart parade of Democrats featuring Senate candidate Val Demings at The Villages, a retirement community just north of the Interstate 4 corridor. It was once a politically mixed part of the state where elections were often decided but now some Democrats now say they feel increasingly isolated.

“I am terrified,” said 77-year-old Sue Sullivan, lamenting the state’s rightward shift. “There are very few Democrats around here.”

In an interview, Demings, a congresswoman and former Orlando police chief challenging Republican Sen. Marco Rubio, conceded that her party’s midterm message isn’t resonating as she had hoped.

“We have to do a better job of telling our stories and clearly demonstrating who’s truly on the side of people who have to go to work every day,” she said.

The frustration is the culmination of nearly a decade of Republican inroads in Florida, where candidates have honed deeply conservative social and economic messages to build something of a coalition that includes rural voters and Latinos, particularly Cuban Americans. Donald Trump’s win here in 2016 signaled the evolution after the state twice backed Barack Obama. And while he lost the White House in 2020, Trump carried Florida by more than 3 percentage points, a remarkable margin in a state where elections were regularly decided by less than a percentage point.

President Joe Biden will visit the state Nov. 1, exactly one week before Election Day, to rally Democrats. Demings said she’s had two conversations with the president about campaigning together, but she could not confirm any joint appearances. And Charlie Crist, the Democratic nominee for governor, said he would attend a private fundraiser with Biden on the day of the rally, but he wasn’t sure whether they would appear together in public.

“If we could squeeze in a little public airtime, that’d be a wonderful thing I would welcome,” Crist said in an interview.

Still, the GOP is bullish that it can keep notching victories, even in longtime Democratic strongholds. Some Republicans are optimistic the party could carry Miami-Dade County, a once unthinkable prospect that would virtually eliminate the Democrats’ path to victory in statewide contests, including presidential elections.

And in southwest Florida’s Lee County, a major Republican stronghold, not even a devastating hurricane appears to have dented the GOP’s momentum. In fact, Republicans and Democrats privately agree that Hurricane Ian, which left more than 100 dead, may have helped Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis broaden his appeal. On Monday, he’ll participate in a debate against Crist in which he’ll likely highlight his stewardship of the state during a searing crisis.

On the eve of the hurricane, DeSantis shipped dozens of Venezuelan immigrants from Texas to Martha’s Vineyard to call attention to illegal immigration at the U.S.-Mexico border.

Crist, a former congressman and onetime governor himself, acknowledged some voters “dig” DeSantis’ focus on cultural issues, “but most Floridians are good, decent people.” He noted that at least one Hispanic radio host has compared DeSantis to former Cuban dictator Fidel Castro.

“Customarily, when you come out of a primary, people will move to the middle. He’s clearly not doing that, to say the least,” Crist said of his Republican rival.

But to the horror of many Democrats, DeSantis could become the first Floridian to win a governor’s race by more than 1 point since 2006. That kind of showing might lift Rubio in the U.S. Senate election while helping the GOP win as many as 20 of the state’s 28 U.S. House seats.

Should DeSantis win big as expected, his allies believe he would have the political capital to launch a successful presidential campaign in 2024 — whether Trump runs or not.

“It’s shocking and it’s scary,” state Democratic Party Chair Manny Diaz said about DeSantis’ repeated willingness to use the power of his office to attack political rivals, whether individual opponents or iconic corporations like Disney.

DeSantis, who declined an interview request, has found success by bucking the conventional wisdom before.

He beat Democrat Andrew Gillum four years ago by 32,436 votes out of more than 8.2 million cast, a margin so narrow that it required a recount.

“We’re no longer a swing state. We’re actually annihilating the Democrats,” said Florida GOP Chairman Joe Gruters, a leading DeSantis ally.

And while he says his party has focused on traditional kitchen-table issues, such as gas prices and inflation, Gruters leaned into cultural fights — especially the Florida GOP’s opposition to sexual education and LGBTQ issues in elementary schools — that have defined DeSantis’ tenure.

“I don’t want anyone else teaching my kids about the birds and the bees and gender fluidity issues,” Gruters said.

Strategists in both parties believe Florida’s political shift is due to multiple factors, but there is general agreement that Republicans have benefited from an influx of new voters since DeSantis emerged as the leader of the GOP resistance to the pandemic-related public health measures.

Every day on average over the year between 2020 and 2021, 667 more people moved into the state than moved away, according to U.S. Census estimates.

Part of the Republican shift can also be attributed to people living in rural areas of north Florida, remnants of the deep South, changing their registration to reflect their voting patterns. Many people registered as Democrats because generations before them did, but the so-called Dixiecrats still voted solidly Republican.

But that alone does not explain the Democrats’ challenge this fall.

Democrats are particularly concerned about the trend in Miami-Dade County, home to 1.5 million Hispanics of voting age and a Democratic stronghold for the past 20 years, where the GOP made significant gains in the last presidential election. In two weeks, the region could turn red.

“We have seen so many Hispanics flock to the Republican party here in Miami-Dade County,” Florida Lt. Gov. Jeanette Núñez said at an event with other party leaders last week. “I’m going to make a prediction right now: We are going to win Miami-Dade County come Nov. 8.”

Meanwhile in southwest Florida, thousands of Republican voters are picking up pieces of their shattered homes and vehicles in the wake of Hurricane Ian, which left more than 100 people dead and caused tens of billions of dollars in damage.

Mangled boats and massive chunks of concrete docks still litter the coastline in Fort Myers, the county seat of Lee County, one of the nation’s most Republican-leaning counties. Thousands of homes were destroyed and several schools remain closed nearly a month after the Category 4 hurricane made landfall.

Still, Matt Caldwell, the county property appraiser and a member of the state GOP, was confident about his party’s political prospects.

“Most of the people, 90% of the people who live in the county are more or less back to life at this point,” he said as he toured a Fort Myers marina covered by twisted metal and crumpled yachts.

Caldwell praised the Republican governor for being a regular presence during cleanup efforts, suggesting that voters across the political spectrum may reward him on Election Day.

DeSantis himself was upbeat as he delivered a storm update not far away in Punta Gorda over the weekend. The governor referred to the coming election, but focused his remarks on relief efforts.

“We’ve had success with bridges and all these other things partially because we have the community rallying together,” DeSantis said. “Everyone’s rowing in the same direction. It makes a difference.”

Florida

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, Jim Jordan, Randy Fine Endorse Joe Strada for Congress

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People attend an abortion-rights rally at the Utah State Capitol Saturday, May 14, 2022, in Salt Lake City. Demonstrators are rallying from coast to coast in the face of an anticipated Supreme Court decision that could overturn women's right to an abortion.(AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)

ORLANDO, Fla. (FNN NEWS) — Republican congressional candidate Joe Strada announced endorsements Thursday from House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and U.S. Reps. Jim Jordan of Ohio and Randy Fine of Florida, adding support from prominent conservative leaders to his campaign for Florida’s 11th Congressional District.

Strada, founder of Strada Services, said the endorsements reflect confidence in his business experience and commitment to advancing conservative priorities in Congress.

Conservative Leaders Rally Behind Strada

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise praised Strada’s private-sector leadership and pledged his support for the campaign.

“Joe Strada is a strong conservative Republican who will stand with President Trump to help us deliver on the America First agenda for hardworking families in Central Florida and across the country,” Scalise said. “Joe Strada has my full endorsement because, as a businessman, Joe knows firsthand what it takes to solve problems, create jobs and empower those who are willing to work for their piece of the American Dream.”

U.S. Rep. Jim Jordan highlighted Strada’s workforce development efforts and business record.

“Joe Strada has built the American Dream for countless families in Florida and across this great nation,” Jordan said. “He’s tackled the skilled worker shortage by building his own training program and graduating students directly into the workforce. Now, more than ever, we need leaders like Joe Strada in Congress because he is a problem solver who will stand up for our shared conservative values and with President Trump.”

Florida Congressman Randy Fine also endorsed Strada, citing their shared business backgrounds and longtime friendship.

“Joe Strada doesn’t just talk about the American Dream—he’s helped thousands of Floridians live it,” Fine said. “While Washington created problems, Joe built solutions by creating his own workforce training program and putting graduates directly into good-paying jobs across Central Florida. President Trump needs fighters who know how to get things done, and I want Joe standing with President Trump and me in Congress.”

Business Background

Strada is the founder of Strada Services, which the campaign describes as the nation’s largest privately held, family-owned provider of air conditioning, electrical, plumbing, and security services. His campaign has emphasized his experience as a self-made businessman and employer, arguing that his private-sector leadership prepares him to address workforce and economic challenges in Congress.

Campaign Message

According to the campaign, Strada is running on a conservative platform focused on supporting President Donald Trump’s America First agenda, strengthening workforce development, expanding job opportunities, and promoting pro-business policies.

The endorsements from Scalise, Jordan, and Fine are expected to bolster Strada’s campaign by highlighting support from influential Republican leaders with strong ties to the House Republican Conference and the conservative movement.

Looking Ahead

Florida’s 11th Congressional District is expected to draw significant attention during the 2026 election cycle. As the campaign progresses, endorsements from national and state Republican leaders are likely to remain an important part of candidates’ efforts to build support among primary voters.

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Politics

Jack Reed, Tammy Duckworth Endorse Alex Vindman in Florida U.S. Senate Race as Campaign Momentum Grows

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FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. (FNN NEWS) — Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Alex Vindman has received endorsements from U.S. Sens. Jack Reed of Rhode Island and Tammy Duckworth of Illinois, two military veterans whose support adds to a growing list of elected officials, labor organizations, and editorial boards backing his campaign.

The endorsements come as Vindman reports a strong second-quarter fundraising performance and seeks to build momentum in one of the nation’s most closely watched Senate races.

Veterans Back Vindman’s Campaign

Reed, a West Point graduate and former Army Ranger, and Duckworth, a retired Army National Guard lieutenant colonel and combat veteran, endorsed Vindman, a retired U.S. Army lieutenant colonel, highlighting his military service and continued commitment to public service.

Vindman said he is honored to receive the support of fellow veterans serving in the U.S. Senate.

“The path to a Democratic Senate majority runs through Florida, and I am honored to earn the endorsement of Senators Jack Reed and Tammy Duckworth, fellow veterans who have continued their call to public service in the Senate,” Vindman said.

Vindman criticized his Republican opponent, U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody, accusing her of putting special interests ahead of Florida families.

“I am not a career politician. I am a 21-year combat veteran who is ready to fight to lower costs and crush the corruption in Washington that is driving up costs for Florida families,” Vindman said.

Campaign Momentum

The endorsements follow Vindman’s announcement that his campaign raised $8.5 million during the second quarter, surpassing Moody’s fundraising by nearly $5 million. His campaign also reported $7.3 million cash on hand, positioning him for what is expected to be one of the country’s most competitive Senate contests.

Campaign officials also point to recent public polling that they say shows the race between Vindman and Moody effectively tied heading into the next phase of the campaign.

Growing Coalition of Support

Reed and Duckworth join a growing coalition of supporters that includes:

  • The Miami Herald Editorial Board.
  • Florida Senate Democratic Leader Lori Berman.
  • State Sen. Tina Polsky.
  • State Rep. Dan Daley.
  • SEIU Local 1991.
  • Southern Regional Council of Carpenters.

The endorsements reflect support from military leaders, Democratic elected officials, organized labor, and media voices.

Florida First Agenda

Vindman is campaigning on what he calls a Florida First Agenda, focusing on lowering everyday costs for Floridians.

His platform includes proposals addressing:

  • Rising grocery prices.
  • Higher gasoline costs.
  • Property insurance affordability.
  • Housing affordability.
  • Government ethics and anti-corruption reforms.

Vindman argues Washington has failed to address many of the economic issues affecting Florida families and says he would prioritize lowering household costs while increasing government accountability.

Looking Ahead

The Florida U.S. Senate race is expected to remain one of the nation’s most competitive contests, with fundraising, endorsements, and voter outreach likely to intensify as Election Day approaches. Both parties view the race as strategically important in the battle for control of the U.S. Senate.

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Florida

Former Lawmaker Daisy Morales Calls for Florida Democratic Party Investigation of Ex-Chair Samuel Vilchez Santiago

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ORLANDO, Fla. (FNN NEWS) — Former Florida State Representative and Democratic candidate for Florida House District 43 Daisy Morales is demanding an independent investigation by the Florida Democratic Party into the circumstances surrounding her removal from the Orange County Democratic Executive Committee. In a sharply worded press release issued Friday, Morales challenged allegations that she endorsed Republican Orange County Commission District 5 candidate Joel Montilla during the 2024 election cycle, arguing the claim should be independently reviewed.

Morales Campaign questions former Orange County Democratic Party chair Samuel Vilchez Santiago’s credibility, judgment, and statements to the Orlando Sentinel.

Morales said the investigation should examine whether party rules were applied fairly, consistently, and in accordance with established procedures, while also reviewing whether any actual or perceived conflicts of interest existed involving former Orange County Democratic Executive Committee Chair Samuel Vilchez Santiago, who is now her opponent in the Democratic primary for House District 43.

“I welcome a fair and impartial investigation. Democratic voters deserve confidence that party rules are applied equally to everyone, regardless of political position, personal relationships, or whether someone is running for office.”

Daisy Morales

Request for Independent Investigation

Morales is asking the Florida Democratic Party to conduct an independent review rather than relying solely on local party officials.

According to Morales, the review should determine:

  • Whether party rules were consistently enforced.
  • Whether proper due process was followed.
  • Whether any conflicts of interest existed during the disciplinary process.
  • Whether official records support the actions taken.

Morales said an independent review would help ensure public confidence in the integrity of the party’s internal governance.

How the Issue Re-Emerged

Morales said she first learned the matter had resurfaced during the 2026 House District 43 campaign after receiving questions from an Orlando Sentinel reporter.

According to Morales, the reporter indicated that Samuel Vilchez Santiago cited an alleged endorsement of Republican candidate Joel Montilla as the basis for questions regarding her removal from the local Democratic Party.

Morales disputes that characterization.

Joel Montilla: “There Was No Endorsement”

Florida National News contacted attorney Joel Montilla, the 2024 Republican candidate for Orange County Commission District 5, requesting clarification.

According to Montilla:

“It wasn’t an endorsement, it was support as the President of the Puerto Rican Bar Association of Florida, Inc.”

When asked directly whether Daisy Morales endorsed his campaign, Montilla responded:

“She did not. She only agreed to be on my host committee as I launched my campaign.”

Montilla further stated:

“There was no endorsement, only support in running. Daisy and I worked on a number of initiatives within the Puerto Rican community. My goal was to have half Democrats and half Republicans support my kickoff to show the bipartisanship in a nonpartisan race. Daisy wasn’t the only local Democrat on my host committee. There were a few.”

Asked what documentation supports his statement, Montilla replied:

“The Host Committee flyer is the only material bearing her name.”

Morales said Montilla’s statements reinforce her request that the Florida Democratic Party review all relevant records before reaching any conclusions.

Campaign Finance Disclosure

Morales also noted that Samuel Vilchez Santiago’s January 30, 2026, campaign finance report disclosed a $100 contribution from Joel Montilla.

Morales said she believes the Florida Democratic Party should determine whether party rules have been applied consistently in light of publicly reported interactions involving Democratic candidates and Republican officeholders.

Source: winterparkvoice.com

Questions About Consistency

Morales is asking the state party to review whether similar situations involving Democratic officials received comparable treatment.

Among the examples she cited:

Morales also noted that Alvarez later endorsed Samuel Vilchez Santiago’s House District 43 campaign.

Morales said these publicly reported examples should be reviewed to determine whether party rules were enforced consistently.

“If party rules are going to be enforced, they should be enforced fairly, consistently, and transparently. Equal treatment and due process should apply to every Democrat.”

Daisy Morales

Request for Records

Morales is requesting preservation and production of records related to the disciplinary process, including:

  • Executive Committee meeting minutes
  • Official resolutions
  • Voting records
  • Disciplinary findings
  • Party bylaws
  • Correspondence
  • Notices
  • Investigative materials
  • Supporting documentation

She said a complete documentary record is necessary for any independent review.

Campaign Impact

Morales said the circumstances surrounding her removal have become part of campaign messaging during the Democratic primary.

She is asking the Florida Democratic Party to determine whether the disciplinary process created either an actual or perceived campaign advantage and whether safeguards existed to prevent conflicts of interest during a contested primary.

Morales’ campaign also said it believes an independent investigation should determine whether there were any irregularities in the disciplinary process, including improper document handling, fabrication of evidence, misrepresentation of facts, or other procedural concerns. The campaign said these allegations warrant review by the state party, rather than solely by local officials, because some local officials may have participated in or possess knowledge of the events under review.

Public Confidence

Morales emphasized that her request is intended to strengthen confidence in the Democratic Party rather than undermine it.

“This investigation is bigger than one campaign. It is about protecting the integrity of the Democratic Party and ensuring that every member is treated fairly, consistently, and with due process.”

Daisy Morales

The Morales campaign alleges that Samuel Vilchez Santiago weaponized the local Democratic Party and the media to further what it describes as a campaign of disinformation and misinformation against Morales.

She added:

“There should be no place for anyone to weaponize a political party’s disciplinary process for personal or political advantage. Democratic voters deserve transparency, accountability, and confidence that the rules apply equally to everyone.”

Requested Action

Morales is asking the Florida Democratic Party to:

  • Conduct an independent investigation.
  • Preserve all relevant records.
  • Review whether local and state party rules were consistently applied.
  • Examine any actual or perceived conflicts of interest.
  • Issue findings based on the complete documentary record.

Morales also said that if the investigation determines Samuel Vilchez Santiago engaged in conduct that violated party rules, ethical standards, or compromised the integrity of the disciplinary process, she believes the Florida Democratic Party should take whatever action it determines is appropriate under its rules, including requesting that he withdraw from the House District 43 race, if warranted by the investigation’s findings.

What’s Next for the Florida Democratic Party?

If the Florida Democratic Party chooses to review Morales’ request, the process could include:

  • Determining whether an independent review is warranted.
  • Preserving relevant records while any review is pending.
  • Evaluating whether local party procedures complied with party bylaws.
  • Reviewing whether similarly situated cases received comparable treatment.
  • Determining whether any conflicts of interest existed.
  • Deciding whether additional action is appropriate under party rules.

As of the information contained in Morales’ press release and the publication of this story, the Florida Democratic Party had not publicly announced whether it would open an investigation or otherwise respond to her request.

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