ORLANDO, Fla. (FNN) – Former President Donald Trump and Republican Senator Rick Scott scored decisive victories with Hispanic and Puerto Rican voters in Florida, according to the 2024 American Electorate Poll of Hispanic Voters. The poll highlights a dramatic shift in Latino voting patterns, with Trump capturing 56% of Florida’s Hispanic vote, compared to 43% for Vice President Kamala Harris, mirroring the overall Florida electorate’s preference.

Comedian Tony Hinchcliffe speaking at a Donald Trump rally, Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York, October 27, 2024. Hinchcliffe has defended his joke at the rally calling Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage,” saying he likes to vacation there. Evan Vucci/ASSOCIATED PRESS

Prominent Puerto Rican, Hispanic, and Democratic Progressive Leaders Condemn Trump and Republicans for Racist Jokes at New York Rally, But Florida Hispanic Voters Deliver Landslide Wins for Trump and Rick Scott

For Puerto Rican voters, the shift was even more striking. Trump secured 57% of the Puerto Rican vote, defeating Harris by 14 points (57%-43%), according to the survey. This marks a significant departure from previous election cycles, as Puerto Rican voters in Florida have traditionally leaned Democratic.

Adding to the GOP’s momentum, Senator Rick Scott defeated his Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell among Hispanic voters, earning 52% of the Hispanic vote to Mucarsel-Powell’s 42%, mirroring the larger electorate’s 13-point margin for Scott (56%-43%).

Trump’s Florida Victory Stands Out Nationwide

While Trump’s appeal to Hispanic voters nationally was evident, nowhere was it stronger than in Florida. The 2024 American Electorate Poll of Hispanic Voters revealed Trump’s 56%-43% win in Florida was his only majority win among Hispanic voters across the 10 states polled. The broader survey, which included 3,750 Hispanic voters nationwide, showed Trump capturing 37% of the Hispanic vote nationwide, with Harris leading at 62%.

Here’s a look at how Hispanic voters sided with Harris in other states:

• California: Harris won 66%-33%
• Michigan: Harris won 66%-33%
• Wisconsin: Harris won 64%-34%
• Georgia: Harris won 64%-35%

These numbers reveal that, outside of Florida, Latino voters remain a reliable voting bloc for Democrats. However, Florida stands as a glaring outlier, raising questions about the Democratic Party’s strategy in the Sunshine State.

What’s Behind the Shift in Florida’s Latino Vote?

The data signals deeper issues for Democrats in Florida. The poll revealed that Florida’s Hispanic voters increasingly back Republican candidates, with 58% supporting Republican candidates for Congress, compared to just 40% supporting Democrats. Nationally, that number shifts, with 62% of Latinos supporting Democrats and 34% supporting Republicans.

Cuban voters also played a decisive role. According to a pre-election survey by Florida International University, 68% of Cuban voters in Miami-Dade County supported Trump, with only 32% backing Harris. Nationally, Cubans supported Trump at 54% to 45%.

Puerto Rican Vote Shift in Central Florida

One of the most surprising shifts was seen in Osceola County, home to one of Florida’s largest Puerto Rican communities. Trump won Osceola County by 1.5 points over Harris, a significant swing from 2020, when Biden won the county by 14 points.

Analysts point to concerns over inflation, cost of living, and dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party’s messaging as potential factors for the shift. Voter priorities also signaled a change in focus. The survey found that Hispanic voters’ top five concerns were:

1. Cost of living/inflation (52%)
2. Jobs and the economy (36%)
3. Housing costs and affordability (27%)
4. Health care costs (25%)
5. Abortion and reproductive rights

The economy remains the dominant issue, with Latino voters prioritizing financial security over social issues that Democrats have emphasized.

Abortion Rights: Florida vs. Other States

The survey also measured support for abortion rights among Latinos. In Florida, 63% of Latino voters supported Amendment 4, which sought to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution. While a clear majority backed the proposal, it fell short of the 60% threshold required for passage.

In comparison, Hispanic support for abortion rights was stronger in other states:

• Arizona: 79% of Hispanic voters supported the abortion rights measure (which passed with 62% support).
• Nevada: 81% of Hispanic voters supported the measure (which passed with 64% support).

This shows that while Florida’s Latino voters supported abortion rights, they were less unified on the issue compared to Latinos in Arizona and Nevada.

Republicans Gain Ground on Immigration Issues

The survey also explored Hispanic voters’ perspectives on immigration. A strong 80% of Latino voters support providing permanent legal status to Dreamers and undocumented immigrants who have lived in the U.S. for a long time. However, support for tougher border security is also evident, with 77% supporting the bipartisan border security bill that sought to expand detention, increase border patrol agents, and boost asylum officers.

This underscores the complexity of immigration issues for Latino voters, who support a path to citizenship while also endorsing stronger border security measures.

Democratic Messaging Out of Touch?

The loss of support for Harris and Democratic candidates like Mucarsel-Powell raises questions about the Democratic Party’s ability to connect with Florida’s Latino electorate. Latino voter priorities — inflation, jobs, and the economy — appear to be more in line with Republican messaging, while Democratic campaigns focused heavily on abortion rights and immigration reform.

Vanessa Cárdenas, executive director of America’s Voice, acknowledged the disconnect, saying,

“We know that the American public, even amidst this year’s results, opposes the Trump agenda of mass deportation… However, Latino voters have shown that economic concerns are front and center.”

What’s Next for Democrats in Florida?

The results from Florida could serve as a warning for Democrats nationwide. If Latino voters continue to shift rightward, it could pose long-term challenges for the party in one of the most crucial swing states. Political analysts are already calling for a major reassessment of Democratic outreach efforts, especially in areas like Osceola County and Miami-Dade County, which were once Democratic strongholds.

Meanwhile, Trump and the GOP have capitalized on Latino dissatisfaction with inflation and economic concerns, delivering a message that resonated. With both Puerto Rican and Cuban voters swinging red, the Democrats’ “blue wall” among Hispanic voters in Florida has crumbled.

What It All Means

• Trump’s 56% of the Hispanic vote in Florida marks a historic shift, especially as Puerto Rican voters in Central Florida abandon the Democratic Party.
• Sen. Rick Scott’s victory over Mucarsel-Powell follows a similar trend, with Latino voters increasingly backing GOP candidates down-ballot.
• Florida’s Latino electorate is shifting right, with 58% supporting Republican congressional candidates compared to 40% backing Democrats.
• Puerto Rican voters in Osceola County flipped to Trump, after backing Biden by 14 points in 2020.
• Democrats face an uphill battle, with key Hispanic communities in Florida expressing dissatisfaction with the party’s message and leadership.

With the 2026 midterms and 2028 presidential election on the horizon, Democrats will have to address this shifting landscape if they hope to reclaim ground with Florida’s crucial Latino voting bloc.

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About the 2024 American Electorate Voter Poll

The 2024 American Electorate Voter Poll is a large-scale poll of Black, Hispanic, Asian American, Native American and white voters nationally and in key states and congressional districts, conducted by the African American Research Collaborative (AARC) and BSP Research, and sponsored by SEIU, UnidosUS, First Nations Development Institute, Climate Power, Indivisible, Rural Organizing, Voter Participation Center, America’s Voice and the American Civil Liberties Union.