ORANGE COUNTY, Fla. (FNN NEWS) – A special election for the Florida State House District 44 seat is on the immediate horizon to replace recently appointed 5th District of Appeals Judge Eric Eisnaugle. Interestingly, the outgoing Eisnaugle won his original election to the District #44 seat in–you guessed it–a special election, in 2014. Eisnaugle high-handedly beat out Democrat Sean Raja in a district that skews heavily Republican. But this special election has opponents and supporters already swinging for this highly sought-after seat with roughly two months remaining before the primary.

Photo courtesy of 5th District of Appeals Judge Eric Eisnaugle (pictured).

Florida Governor Rick Scott announced the primary for the special election will be on August 15th and the special election for the Florida House District 44 seat will be October 10th. Running for the seat are five candidates that qualified in mid June: one Democrat and four Republicans. The predominantly white District has approximately 112,000 registered voters, with Republicans leading the pack. The easiest description of the district is West Orange County, but it’s basically bordered from Osceola County to Apopka including the heavy voter turnout areas of Dr. Phillips, Bay Hill and Windermere, up to parts of Winter Garden.

Let me briefly break down each candidate.

PAUL CHANDLER: THE SOLE DEMOCRAT TO QUALIFY IN THE RACE

Florida House District 44 Democratic candidate Paul Chandler. Photo courtesy of Yahoo Images.

Democrat Paul Chandler automatically goes to the special election in October because he is the only Democrat that qualified by deadline. Chandler is founder, president and chairman of Ohana Healthcare, a multi-state company he runs from offices near Lake Buena Vista that provides full-service operational services and education programs to small-and medium-size physicians groups and small hospitals. I was unable to locate a campaign Facebook or political webpage to share and his campaign finance reports are grim at best.

Photo courtesy of Orange County Democratic Party Chairman Wes Hodge (pictured).

Wes Hodge, Chairman of the Orange County Democratic Party said of Chandler’s chances, “House District 44, much like the rest of Orange County, is trending Democratic as we move forward. The Orange County Democratic Party is glad our voters will have a clear choice in October, and they will be able to vote for a candidate who is willing to represent their ideas in Tallahassee.”

But not so fast there Kemosabe. The numbers make it very difficult for a Democrat to pull off a victory in District 44. Special elections, at best, bring out roughly 10 percent of registered voters, suggesting we’re most likely looking at a race that could be decided with as few as 10,000 total votes. The 2014 special election brought out roughly 9,500 people, mostly Republican voters. Three years later, and with this race gaining a great deal of attention, a number like 10,000 is a safe bet in a district that traditionally over-performs in voter turnout. Eisnaugle, the Republican, overwhelmingly won in 2014 with roughly 7,000 votes.

Moving onto the Republicans in the order of who will most likely deliver votes (from least to most likely). Chadwick Hardee, Vice Chairman of the Orange County Republican Executive Committee had this to say: “It is good to have great community leaders that are qualified to run. Whoever wins is set up to potentially make a run at House Speaker, and that’s exciting.”

Photo courtesy of Orange County Republican Executive Committee Vice Chair Chadwick Hardee (pictured).

Let’s meet the Republican candidates.

DR. USHA JAIN

Photo courtesy of Dr. Usha Jain (pictured).

Dr. Usha Jain is a medial doctor and former candidate for Orange County Commission. Dr. Jain seems to have her heart in the right place, but lacks the basic fundamentals of a viable campaign. Her messaging and campaign structure are bare and her ability to raise funds, based off of her filed campaign reports, is less than impressive. Dr. Usha Jain, “I am from India and I’m also Hindu with Jain religion which is purley based on nonviolence and karma. Dr. Jain is a vegetarian and believes in nonviolence and karma.”

ONE TO WATCH: BRUNO PORTILIATTI

Photo courtesy of Bruno Portiliatti (pictured).

Portiliatti is CEO (Chief Executive Officer) at Excellence ALF. A quick review of his Facebook page suggests that he’s relatively young and newly married. Portiliatti has a professional appeal and produced a well articulated campaign video. With over 16,000 views at the time this article, certainly people are paying attention to this relative newcomer in Orange County politics. He is probably not a contender in this particular race, but he could simply be testing the waters for reaction and a future run in another race.

Now we come to the players in the race, Bobby Olszewski (Bobby O) and John Newstreet. When “Bobby O” entered the race in April it was no surprise. With rumors swirling about the possibility of Eisnaugle being appointed to the appellate court, the political players started aligning themselves to take a run for the anticipated open seat. Let’s quickly recap both contenders and then briefly dive into the waters starting to become a bit murky in the House #44 race.

JOHN NEWSTREET

Photo courtesy of John Newstreet (pictured).

Who?

When I first heard the name John Newstreet I immediately had to look him up. But my lack of knowledge was quickly shadowed by the deluge of support he garnered almost immediately, raising nearly $80,000 right out of the gate. Newstreet, a military Veteran, comes from a large family that embraced adoption in increasing their family tree. Newstreet recently moved into the district, but has a long history of working behind the scenes in politics, dating back to his days at the University of Central Florida. Additionally, he just received the endorsement of The West Orange Political Alliance.

Photo courtesy of Jacob Engels, founder of Central Florida Post (pictured).

Further discussions during my interview with Jacob Engel, founder of the Central Florida Post, suggest Newstreet has far deeper roots than most realize. He also appears to have some heavy-hitting support in Orange County Commissioner Scott Boyd and rumor has it he’s hired well known political consultant John Dowless to lead his campaign. Not shabby for a newcomer. But as we all know, money is nice, but name recognition has substantial value, so don’t be surprised if we start seeing a heavy push by the Newstreet camp to increase his name and brand recognition in West Orange County. In fact, it must be his priority or he’ll fail to be a contender for the seat. No denying he’s certainly off to a great start. His campaign page can be found here.

BOBBY “O” OLSZEWSKI

Photo courtesy of Bobby Olszewski (pictured).

Olszewski, a new father and well known political stakeholder in West Orange County, is a former Winter Garden Commissioner who resigned to run for Orange County Commissioner in 2016 in a narrow loss to Betsy VanderLey. Olszewski also has a number of well known public figures that have endorsed his candidacy. He is known for a substantial ground game and grassroots approach to campaigning. In recent weeks, however, he has faced harsh criticism for his engagement in what Engels refers to as a “scam to defraud taxpayers.” In its simplest form, it appears Olszewski was involved in the development of a for profit company, via the support of Apopka Mayor Joe Kilsheimer and Florida State Senator Randolph Bracy, that helps felons restore their rights. (More background on this detailed here.) However, I have spoken to Bobby “O” and he adamantly denies any wrongdoing and feels the effort to discredit him is a veiled attempt to help the establishment choice in Newstreet.

NO BROMANCE HERE

Photo courtesy of Orange County Commissioner Scott Boyd (pictured).

Chiming in on this race is outgoing two-term Orange County Commissioner Scott Boyd. The relatively under-the-radar commissioner has been posting some harsh criticism of Olszewski on his Facebook page.

“The only thing this guy stands for is himself. I personally picked up his slack to the tune of nearly $5,000 for a couple of back to school events he failed to provide for. Now he wants $500,000 of our tax dollars to start a bogus private felony rehab program for a community he couldn’t even pull together a few hundred back packs [for].”

When I first read his Facebook post I had to read it again, as I have rarely seen the Commissioner speak in a negative way. However, this is an ongoing feud between Boyd and Olszewski since Olszewski’s bid to replace Boyd in the Orange County District 1 Commission race.

Boyd continued with another post, “Will the former Winter Garden Commissioner and failed Orange County Commission candidate now House District 44 candidate disclose his finance report? In the Orange County Commission election he ran all of the expenses through a personal credit card. Last I checked 1.5 miles in sky miles for every dollar spent would be a nice bonus for the candidate.” Needless to say, there appears to be some bad blood flowing.

So with that challenging optic, can Olszewski win? The answer might very well rest in how he handles the next two months of campaigning as whichever Republican comes out of the primary victoriously will most likely win the State House 44 race and possibly be in line to be the next House Speaker. And folks…that’s power squared.

HOW A SPECIAL ELECTION DIFFERS FROM A TRADITIONAL ONE

It’s important to remember how special elections are different than a traditional election. For example, in a Presidential election cycle, people feel an obligation to make their way to the polls–a patriotic duty, if you will. Even off-year gubernatorial elections draw traditional voters. But a special election is much more personal. Outside of the loyal party base on both sides, since only Democrats or Republicans can vote in a primary (and in this case only Republicans will be voting since there is only one Democrat), votes really are driven by allegiance to a candidate. This is where Olszewski has the upper hand as it’s no secret he has a substantial base of support in West Orange County, having just completed a huge push in 2016 for the County Commission seat. But will the base come out again? Can he hold on to his healthy list of endorsements? Only time will tell.

I’ve failed to find anyone who will deny Bobby “O” is not one of the hardest working politicians in Orange County. He will do the work of knocking on doors and will reintroduce himself to his community bar none. However, you can count on Newstreet, and possibly the other candidates, looking to use Olszewski’s recent perceived missteps on mailers and in social media blasts. One source suggests, “don’t believe a thing he says. He’s a liar.”

Ouch! Well, I only know Olszewski through politics, but he has always been respectful and pleasant. But one thing anyone in politics knows … it’s all about mending fences and building bridges. And this negative imaging, true or not, does require some cleanup work even if Olszewski wins. All in all, it’s Olszewski’s race to lose. He knows how to work the ground game and he knows how to excite his base. But can he put the edgy personality aside long enough to get through the primary? Engels said, “I like Bobby. But he has a big personality that might be a hard pill to swallow for donors and supporters.”

Well, two months is a lifetime in politics and Newstreet, even for No Party Affiliation (NPA) voters and Libertarians I’ve talked with, gets the nod on being the most grounded and articulate in a public forum.

The special election primary is in August followed by the special election October 10th. All candidates are campaigning for a job that pays a whopping $29,697.00 annually–a $30k/year job that, upon election, pretty much requires 24/7 fundraising until the next election; excluding the time that the legislature is in session.

All candidates have met the requirements of being 21 years of age, have lived in Florida for two years and live in the District they intend to serve.

Stay tuned for more follow-up and one-on-one interviews with candidates in this race willing to state their case to the voters.

Here we thought the Orlando City Council District 5 race would be the only dramatic political race to watch. Looks like we now have two reality shows to watch this season. Grab your popcorn everyone…

___________________________________________

Randy Ross is a political reporter for Florida National News | info@floridanationalnews.com