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US and Russia tout prisoner swap as a victory. But perceptions of the deal show stark differences

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President Vladimir Putin strode along the red carpet between two rows of rifle-toting honor guards and warmly greeted intelligence operatives freed in the biggest prisoner swap with the West since the Cold War.

“The Motherland hasn’t forgotten about you for a minute,” Putin said, embracing each of them after they walked down the steps of the jetliner that ferried them home.

Putin, who rarely — if ever — travels to the airport to greet foreign heads of state these days, was delivering a clear, morale-boosting message to his security services: If you get caught, Russia will bring you home.

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Russian President Vladimir Putin, second right, Federal Security Service (FSB) director Alexander Bortnikov, right, and Russian Foreign Intelligence Service chief Sergei Naryshkin, third left, greet freed Russian prisoners upon their arrival at Vnukovo government airport outside Moscow, Russia, Aug. 1, 2024. (Mikhail Voskresensky, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)

For the Kremlin, Vadim Krasikov, the hitman imprisoned in Germany for killing a former Chechen militant in Berlin, was perhaps the most important component in the exchange that saw eight Russians swapped for 16 Westerners and Russian dissidents who had been imprisoned in recent years.

Moscow freed American journalists Evan Gershkovich and Alsu Kurmasheva, former U.S. Marine Paul Whelan and a group of top dissidents.

Washington extolled it as a major diplomatic victory. But so did Moscow.

“Putin is sending a signal that those working abroad will have maximum protection, and that if they are arrested, the state will fight for their return and roll out the red carpet for them,” said Tatyana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.

She noted that Russian and Western perceptions of the deal were starkly different.

“In the West, it’s being viewed from a humanitarian and political perspective, closely followed by media, significant for society,” Stanovaya told The Associated Press. “In Russia, it’s not an issue for society, it’s an issue for the state.”

The average Russian probably “doesn’t even know the names of those who returned,” she added. “But for Putin, those who returned to Russia are real heroes, patriots who worked for the state and defended the national interest.”

Krasikov was convicted in the Aug. 23, 2019, killing of Zelimkhan “Tornike” Khangoshvili, a 40-year-old Georgian citizen who had fought Russian troops in Chechnya and later claimed asylum in Germany.

At his sentencing to life in prison in 2021, German judges said Krasikov had acted on the orders of Russian authorities, who gave him the resources to carry out the killing.

In 2019, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied any Russian involvement in the killing. But on Friday, he said Krasikov is an officer of the Federal Security Service and once served in the FSB’s special forces Alpha unit, along with some of Putin’s bodyguards.

By including Krasikov in the deal, “Putin has shown how important it is to him to secure the return of imprisoned Russian spies,” said Nigel Gould-Davies, senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.

He noted the Russian leader’s “determination to get Krasikov back was key to this exchange.”

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Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, speaks to released Russian prisoners upon their arrival at the Vnukovo government airport outside Moscow, Russia, on Thursday, Aug. 1, 2024. (Kirill Zykov, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)

Russia released twice as many people as the West in what Gould-Davies described as a “striking departure from the strict parity (or better) that Russia always insisted on in previous swaps.”

When it suits him, Putin has occasionally accepted unequal exchanges.

In September 2022, Ukraine agreed to free jailed opposition leader Viktor Medvedchuk, whom Putin had personally known, and dozens of other people in exchange for over 200 Ukrainians and foreigners in Russian captivity.

Gould-Davies said Putin, a KGB veteran, could have been driven by a strong personal loyalty to the undercover agents in Thursday’s swap.

“Putin now places such a high value on his spies that he is prepared to agree to an unfavorable exchange,” he said.

Abbas Gallyamov, a political analyst and former Putin speechwriter, described the swap as a way to ensure the loyalty of Russian operatives abroad and make them realize that he “will make every effort to pull them out of prison.”

“Putin showed to all his spies, killers and other people who he uses abroad that he’s like their father,” Gallyamov said. “It’s important because it ensures their loyalty.”

Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of the Putin-chaired Security Council, declared on his messaging app channel that while “it would be desirable to see the traitors of Russia rot behind bars … it’s more useful to get our guys out.”

The anti-Western hawk added ominously that “the traitors should now frantically be choosing new names and hiding under witness protection programs.”

Among those released by Russia were Vladimir Kara-Murza, a Pulitzer Prize-winning writer serving 25 years on a treason conviction widely seen as politically motivated; opposition activist Ilya Yashin, imprisoned for his criticism of the war in Ukraine; associates of the late opposition leader Alexei Navalny, and Oleg Orlov, a veteran human rights campaigner.

While some have voiced hope the freed activists could reinvigorate Russia’s beleaguered and fragmented opposition that has lacked a charismatic leader since Navalny’s death, others point to steep challenges they will face.

Stanovaya said it would be hard for them to make their voices heard in Russia, where most people lack access to independent media and liberal views are shared by a relatively narrow segment of the public.

She predicted the Kremlin will portray them as serving Western interests, especially Kara-Murza, a dual Russian-British citizen who was a vocal supporter of sanctions against Moscow.

Gallyamov also said the Kremlin doesn’t view the freed activists as a major threat.

“Released opposition figures won’t cause any additional issues” for the Kremlin, he said, adding that the messages that Yashin and others sent from prison evoked more sympathy and interest. “The Kremlin wins from this deal.”

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UNICEF Launches Emergency Tender for Mpox Vaccines in Collaboration with Africa CDC, Gavi, and WHO

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NEW YORK/COPENHAGEN – UNICEF today announced that it has issued an emergency tender for the procurement of mpox vaccines. Vaccines can play a critical role in containing the mpox outbreak which was declared a public health emergency by both the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) and the World Health Organization (WHO).

The UNICEF tender is issued to help secure mpox vaccines for the hardest hit countries in collaboration with Africa CDC, Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, WHO, the Pan American Health Organization and other partners. This collaboration to increase access and timely allocation also includes working together to facilitate donations of vaccines from existing stockpiles in high-income countries with the aim of containing the ongoing transmission of mpox.

Under the emergency tender, UNICEF will set up conditional supply agreements with vaccine manufacturers. This will enable UNICEF to purchase and ship vaccines without delay once countries and partners have secured financing, confirmed demand and readiness, and the regulatory requirements for accepting the vaccines are in place. WHO is currently reviewing the information submitted by manufacturers on 23 August and is expected to complete its review for Emergency Use Listing by mid-September.

More than 18,000 suspected cases of mpox, including 629 deaths, have been reported this year in the Democratic Republic of the Congo which is at the epicentre of the crisis. Four out of five deaths have been in children.

“Addressing the current mpox vaccine shortage and delivering vaccines to communities who need them now is of paramount importance. There is also a pressing need for a universal and transparent allocation mechanism to ensure equitable access to mpox vaccines,” said Director of UNICEF Supply Division Leila Pakkala.

“As we confront the ongoing Mpox outbreak, the timely procurement and distribution of vaccines is crucial to protecting the most vulnerable populations, particularly in the hardest-hit regions. This emergency tender is a critical step forward in our collective effort to control the spread of this disease. Africa CDC is committed to ensuring that vaccines are allocated swiftly and equitably across the continent, in partnership with UNICEF, Gavi, WHO, and other key stakeholders. Our unified response is essential to curbing the impact of this public health emergency and safeguarding the health and well-being of our communities,” said Dr. Jean Kaseya, Director General of Africa CDC.

“With several partners working on securing access to supply, today’s announcement represents an important step in this emergency, enabling UNICEF to purchase and deliver vaccines after Gavi and other partners make funding available and sign purchase or donation agreements with manufacturers for the most immediate dose needs,” said Dr Derrick Sim, interim Chief Vaccine Programmes and Markets Officer at Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. “Securing access to supply and financing, delivering doses, and in parallel ensuring countries are ready to administer them, are all vital actions that need to be conducted rapidly but thoroughly, and in a coordinated manner. We welcome this tender as another positive step our Alliance and Africa CDC are taking in this response.”

“A swift, coordinated, and equitable response is critical to controlling the current mpox emergency and preventing future ones,” said Dr Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO incident manager for the global mpox response and acting Director for Epidemic and Pandemic Preparedness and Prevention. “All of us must act decisively now or risk allowing mpox to spread further and become an even greater global threat. In an interconnected world, the fight against mpox – as with other infectious diseases and health threats — cannot be waged alone., WHO is glad to partner with UNICEF, Gavi, Africa CDC, other partners and affected countries to get life-saving tools to people in need.”

The emergency tender is designed to secure immediate access to available mpox vaccines as well as to expand production. Depending on demand, production capacity of manufacturers and funding, agreements for up to 12 million doses through 2025 can be put in place.

Vaccines are one of several tools used to interrupt transmission and to protect children and communities against mpox. Africa CDC, Gavi, UNICEF, WHO, and partners are also prioritizing infection prevention and control, and risk communication and community engagement. As part of this, UNICEF is deploying personal protection equipment, diagnostic tests, medical treatment kits, hygiene supplies and tents to countries at the forefront of the crisis. These supplies support a host of medical countermeasures such as treatment, case isolation and surveillance.

UNICEF is the world’s largest single vaccine buyer, procuring more than 2 billion doses of vaccines annually for routine child immunization and outbreak response on behalf of nearly 100 countries.

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How two strikes on militant leaders in the Middle East could escalate into a regional war

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TEL AVIV, Israel (AP) — The targeting of two senior militant leaders in two Middle Eastern capitals within hours of each other — with each strike blamed on Israel — risks rocking the region at a critical moment.

The strikes come as international mediators are working to bring Israel and Hamas to agree to a cease-fire that would wind down the devastating war in Gaza and free hostages. Intense diplomatic efforts are also underway to ease tensions between Israel and Hezbollah after months of cross-border fighting.

The assassination of Hamas’ top leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and the strike against senior Hezbollah commander Fouad Shukur in Beirut could upend those painstaking attempts to defuse a Middle East powder keg. Iran has also threatened to respond after the attack on its territory, which could drag the region into all-out war.

Here’s a look at the potential fallout from the strikes:

Gaza cease-fire negotiations could crumble

Haniyeh’s assassination could prompt Hamas to pull out of cease-fire negotiations being mediated by the U.S., Egypt and Qatar, though it has yet to comment on the issue.

But given Haniyeh’s role, a senior Egyptian official with direct knowledge of the negotiations said the killing will highly likely have an impact, calling it “a reckless act.”

“Haniyeh was the main link with (Hamas) leaders inside Gaza, and with other Palestinian factions,” said the official, who met with the Hamas leader multiple times in the talks. “He was the one we were meeting face-to-face and talking about the cease-fire.”

 

The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the talks with the media.

Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed Bin Abdul Rahman al-Thani condemned the attacks.

“How can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on the other side?” he wrote on the social media platform X.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he didn’t want to speculate on the effect, but the events renewed the “imperative of getting the cease-fire,” which he said they are working toward on a daily basis.

Hezbollah has said that it will halt its fire on Israel if a Gaza cease-fire is reached.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has argued that military pressure will prompt Hamas to agree to a deal, but previous killings of senior figures have not appeared to increase the chances for an agreement.

People in Gaza expressed sadness and shock over Haniyeh’s killing and worried that a cease-fire deal was slipping away.

“By assassinating Haniyeh, they are destroying everything,” said Nour Abu Salam, a displaced Palestinian. “They don’t want peace. They don’t want a deal.”

The increasingly desperate families of hostages held in Gaza urged for their loved ones to be released.

“I’m not interested in this assassination or that assassination, I’m interested in the return of my son and the rest of the hostages, safe and sound, home,” said Dani Miran, whose son Omri, 46, was kidnapped from Kibbutz Nahal Oz on Oct. 7.

A broader war on more fronts risks erupting

The strikes also raised alarm among some diplomats working to defuse tensions in the region.

“The events in Tehran and Beirut push the entire Middle East to a devastating regional war,” said one Western diplomat.

The diplomat — whose government has engaged in concerted diplomacy to prevent an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah, but is not directly involved in cease-fire or hostage negotiations — called the killing of Haniyeh a “serious development” that has “almost killed” a possible cease-fire in Gaza, given its timing and location.

She said that Haniyeh’s killing inside Tehran while attending the inauguration of an Iranian president “will force Tehran to respond.”

The assassination in Tehran is not the first time that Israel has been blamed for a targeted attack on Iranian soil, but it’s one of the most brazen, said Menachem Merhavy, an expert on Iran from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

Israel hasn’t taken responsibility for the strike, though it vowed to kill all of Hamas’ leaders over the Oct. 7 attacks. Merhavy thinks it’s unlikely that Iran will respond directly to Israel, such as with the barrage of 300 rockets in April after a suspected Israeli strike in Syria that killed two Iranian generals in an Iranian consular building.

He believes Iran is more likely to send its response via Hezbollah.

“Iran knows that its capability of hurting Israel is much more significant from Lebanon,” said Merhavy.

The location of Haniyeh’s assassination was just as important as the strike itself, he said.

“The message was to Iran and the proxies, if you thought in Tehran you’re protected, we can reach you there as well,” said Merhavy. “Reconsider your relations with Tehran, because they cannot protect you on its own soil.”

Targeted leaders can be easily replaced

Although Haniyeh’s name has more international recognition, the strike on Hezbollah commander Fouad Shukur, if successful, is “much more important from a functional point of view,” said Michael Milshtein, an Israeli analyst of Palestinian affairs at Tel Aviv University and a former military intelligence officer.

He said Shukur was involved in the day-to-day management of Hezbollah’s strikes on Israel, including, according to Israel, the rocket attack on Majdal Shams that killed 12 youths on Saturday. Israel said its hit in Beirut on Tuesday killed him but Hezbollah has not confirmed that.

“If Hezbollah is considering how to act or to respond, one of the main question marks is how they’re going to manage a war without Shukur,” said Milshtein.

Others said Shukur, if he is in fact killed, will easily be replaced.

“Hezbollah has thick layers of commanders and leaders, and the killing of 1 or 10 or 500 will not change the equation,” said Fawaz Gerges, of the London School of Economics.

Gerges said Haniyeh is a much more symbolic leader and is far removed from the day-to-day operations in Gaza.

“Even though the assassination of Haniyeh is a painful blow for Hamas, it will make no difference in the military confrontation between Israel and Hamas,” and Gerges.

He noted that Israel has a long history of assassinating leaders of Palestinian groups, but those strikes have little impact as the leaders are quickly replaced.

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Banned governing body that’s fueling outcry on Olympic boxers has Russian ties and troubled history

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VILLEPINTE, France (AP) — Nearly 17 months ago in New Delhi, Algerian boxer Imane Khelif was disqualified from the International Boxing Association’s world championships three days after she won an early-round bout with Azalia Amineva, a previously unbeaten Russian prospect.

The disqualification meant Amineva’s official record was perfect again.

The IBA said Khelif and fellow boxer Lin Yu-ting of Taiwan had failed “to meet the required necessary eligibility criteria and were found to have competitive advantages over other female competitors.” The governing body claimed the fighters had failed unspecified eligibility tests — the same tests that ignited a massive controversy about gender regulations and perceptions in sports this week as Khelif and Lin compete at the Paris Olympics.

The IBA’s decision last year — and its curious timing, particularly related to Amineva’s loss to Khelif — would have raised warning signs around the sports world if more people cared about amateur boxing, or even knew more about the IBA under president Umar Kremlev of Russia.

The entire boxing world has already learned to expect almost anything from the Russian-dominated governing body that was given the unprecedented punishment of being permanently banned from the Olympics last year. In fact, it hasn’t run an Olympic boxing tournament since the Rio de Janeiro Games in 2016.

The non-boxing world largely doesn’t know, however, about the IBA’s decades of troubled governance and longstanding accusations of a thorough lack of normal transparency in nearly every aspect of its dealings, particularly in recent years. Many people took the IBA’s proclamations about Khelif and Lin at face value while dragging the eligibility dispute into wider clashes about gender identity.

The International Olympic Committee has decades of mostly bad history with the beleaguered governing body previously known for decades as AIBA, and it has exasperatedly begged non-boxing people to pay attention to the sole source of the allegations against Khelif and Lin.

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Algeria’s Imane Khelif, right, defeated, Italy’s Angela Carini in their women’s 66kg preliminary boxing match at the 2024 Summer Olympics, Thursday, Aug. 1, 2024, in Paris, France. (AP Photo/Ariana Cubillos)

“These two athletes were the victims of a sudden and arbitrary decision by the IBA,” IOC spokesman Mark Adams said this week. “Such an approach is contrary to good governance.”

On Saturday, IOC President Thomas Bach said it was “totally unacceptable” the two boxers have faced what he called hate speech in a “politically motivated” uproar.

The IOC had stuck with the previous incarnation of boxing’s governing body through decades of judging scandals, bizarre leadership decisions and innumerable financial misdeeds while it presided over Olympic boxing tournaments.

Not until 2019, nearly two years after the organization elected a president with what U.S. officials call deep ties to Russian organized crime and heroin trafficking, did the IOC finally banish the perpetually troubled group.

The most powerful organization in amateur boxing for decades is now governing a reduced roster of national federations while keeping up its fight with the IOC. Nearly three dozen nations, including nearly all of the prominent Western boxing teams, have taken the extraordinary step of leaving the IBA to form World Boxing, a new governing body, in a final attempt to keep boxing in the 2028 Olympics.

AIBA’s final Olympic downfall was triggered about six years ago when it elected president Gafur Rakhimov, an Uzbek businessman described by the U.S. Treasury Department as an organized crime boss. Rakhimov, who denies those allegations, finally resigned in July 2019, a month after the IOC suspended ties.

The group changed its name and elected Kremlev, a Russian boxing functionary and an acquaintance of Russian President Vladimir Putin. That only made things worse between the IBA and the sections of the international boxing community not beholden to the body’s financial support, unlike many smaller boxing nations.

Kremlev introduced Russian state-controlled Gazprom as its biggest sponsor and moved much of the IBA’s operations to Russia after he took over in late 2020. He also fought off a challenge to his leadership two years ago by essentially scrapping an election in highly dubious fashion.

None of this sat well with the IOC — particularly after the Olympic organization advised its governing bodies to prevent Russian athletes from competing with their flags and anthems after Putin’s forces invaded Ukraine in 2022. The IBA disregarded that guidance at its world championships the following year.

The IOC permanently stripped the IBA’s Olympic credentials and ran the past two Olympic boxing tournaments with a task force.

Former governing body president Wu Ching-kuo, the last to take part in an Olympics, made moderate progress in improving AIBA’s reputation until his leadership group decided it would attempt to control boxing in all of its forms — including the professional game. The ill-conceived plan to use the chance for Olympic medals as a cudgel to sign fighters to pro contracts went nowhere, and Wu was eventually drummed out of AIBA himself amid severe financial woes.

But Kremlev has seized his opportunity this summer to call into question the IOC’s governance over the Paris boxing tournament while stoking the wider outcry raised around Khelif and Lin.

Kremlev also has made additional allegations about the gender of both fighters without providing proof, and people across the world have accepted his word. That’s unbelievably frustrating to veteran boxing executives like Boris Van Der Vorst, the Dutch businessman leading World Boxing. Van Der Vorst ran for the presidency of the IBA, only for his candidacy to be inexplicably declared invalid.

People have misidentified Khelif and Lin as men or transgender.

“It’s not very respectful for the boxers who are competing here, to Chinese Taipei and Algeria, to speak about them in these terms. That’s what I’m trying to stress,” Van Der Vorst told The Associated Press.

So much is unclear about the IBA’s decision to ban Khelif and Lin last year, particularly since both had competed in IBA events for years without problems.

It’s even possible the decision was actually made according to the results of legitimate tests conducted over two years, as the IBA says — but the IBA has refused to officially say what, when or where these tests were administered, who evaluated them, or what the results meant.

The national boxing federations of Algeria and Taiwan are still members of the IBA, which is making a last-ditch appeal to the Swiss Federal Tribunal against its Olympic banishment.

The IOC has said boxing will be dropped from the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics unless the sport lines up behind a new governing body, and World Boxing is the only obvious alternative.

Until then, Kremlev isn’t attempting to make nice with the IOC. He announced plans last month to pay more than $3.1 million to Olympic medalists and coaches, even though IBA has no connection to many of the nations that will win in Paris.

This week, he released a series of English-subtitled videos on social media packed with insults, saying the Olympics “burns from pure devilry” and calling Bach “evil” and urging him to “resign urgently.” Kremlev has ended some of them by saying he’s sending Bach diapers so he doesn’t soil himself, then punching the camera.

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